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Waste/Non-Allocation
Statistics
In U.S. immigration law, Congress sets annual numerical limits for immigrant visas. If an agency (USCIS for adjustment of status or the State Department for consular processing) cannot finalize enough cases before the fiscal-year cutoff (September 30), any unused employment-based numbers disappear; they cannot be carried forward. By contrast, unused family-sponsored numbers from one year can roll over to the employment-based limit the next year, boosting availability there. These mechanics—fixed quotas, per-country caps, and one-way rollover—form the backdrop for visa waste. Constangy+1
How Big Has Visa Waste Been?
FY2021 (pandemic recovery year)
The employment-based limit spiked to ~262,000 (because so many family-sponsored visas went unused during COVID consular closures), yet agencies could not complete enough cases. Roughly 66,781 employment-based visas went unused at year end—classic “waste.” Lexology
FY2022:
The employment-based limit climbed again (widely cited at ~280,000). Agencies launched surge efforts (file transfers, interview deferrals, and medical-exam flexibilities), and outside observers tracked month-by-month usage to mitigate another loss. (USCIS described extraordinary measures to use the numbers within the fiscal year.) Lexology
FY2023:
USCIS later reported that all available employment-based numbers for FY2023 were used, avoiding a repeat of FY2021’s shortfall. The same USCIS materials also describe how the agency coordinates with State to monitor inventory and push cases to completion when numbers are available. USCIS
These swings underline a core point: visa waste is not only about “demand.” It is also about operational capacity—how quickly cases can be adjudicated and scheduled once numbers exist.
Why It Happens: The Operational & Regulatory Bottlenecks
01
COVID-era backlogs and consular capacity.
Pandemic closures and staffing gaps left worldwide IV posts with bulging queues. Even after reopening, security checks, local conditions, and uneven staffing created country-by-country variation in how many cases could be finished before the annual deadline—especially for family-sponsored categories, which in turn altered the next year’s employment-based ceiling via rollover. Travel.state.gov
02
One-way rollover rule.
If family-sponsored numbers go unused, they increase the next year’s EB limit; if employment-based numbers go unused, they expire. This asymmetry explains why FY2021 produced a historically high EB ceiling—and why failure to convert that ceiling into issued cards translated directly into waste. Constangy
03
Per-country caps.
Statute limits how many numbers a single country can consume annually within each preference. When demand surges in one or two countries, the cap slows final issuance even if worldwide totals look ample. Agencies then must re-sequence processing to avoid leaving numbers idle at year end. Travel.state.gov
04
Process timing and document readiness.
USCIS can only request a visa number for adjustment cases that are “documentarily complete” (security checks, medicals, fees, etc.). If large cohorts are not ready to finalize late in the year, numbers can go unused despite apparent demand. USCIS’s FY2022–FY2023 surge initiatives (case redistribution, interview waivers, medical-exam flexibilities) were aimed squarely at this choke point. Lexology+1
Family vs. Employment Interplay
Because family-sponsored shortfalls feed the next year’s EB ceiling, big consular slowdowns can inflate the EB limit (as in FY2021–FY2022). That is a benefit only if agencies can then convert the higher ceiling into completed green cards. DHS’s Yearbook for FY2023, for example, quantifies how many additional employment-based numbers were available owing to prior family-based shortfalls, illustrating the see-saw between the two tracks. Cato Institute
Are Things Improving?
The FY2023 result—USCIS reporting full use of available EB numbers—suggests agencies have become more adept at avoiding waste when ceilings are elevated. The same FAQ materials outline coordination with State, intra-agency workload shifts, and policy flexibilities (e.g., selective interview requirements and medical-exam policies) that make it easier to land adjudications before the fiscal deadline. That said, performance is contingent on staffing, document readiness, and steady scheduling—variables that can tighten or loosen year to year. USCIS
What Recapture Debates Are About
When waste occurs, advocates periodically urge “recapture”—legislation to restore previously lost numbers. The idea is that Congress could instruct agencies to add back the count of unused visas from prior years on top of current limits. Congressional and policy briefs often frame recapture as a one-time tool to neutralize pandemic-era waste and shrink backlogs without changing per-country caps. Whether Congress acts is a political question; the legal baseline, however, is clear: without new law, unused EB numbers expire. Constangy
Practical Implications for Applicants & Sponsors
Watch the Visa Bulletin and Agency Ops in Tandem
A favorable cut-off date is not enough; adjudicative throughput and interview availability determine whether numbers actually get issued by year end. The State Department’s Visa Statistics and monthly bulletins reveal movement; USCIS operations updates and FAQs explain whether the agency is on track to use what’s available. Travel.state.gov+1
Be “Documentarily Qualified” Early
For adjustment applicants, ensure medicals, security checks, fees, and any interfiling requests are in order long before Q4. For consular cases, respond rapidly to NVC and post requests. Operationally ready cases are what agencies can move when numbers are at risk of expiring. USCIS
Education Access
FY2021’s large shortfall, FY2022’s elevated ceiling, and FY2023’s full usage illustrate that the same statutory framework can yield very different outcomes depending on capacity and policy choices. Applicants should plan for swings rather than assume linear improvement. Lexology+1
Sources
U.S. Department of State, Visa Statistics / Report of the Visa Office (annual immigrant-visa statistics; explains numerical-limit mechanics and country caps). Travel.state.gov
USCIS, Fiscal Year 2023 Employment-Based Adjustment of Status FAQs (agency update indicating full use of EB numbers and describing throughput measures). USCIS
DHS, 2023 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics (documents spillover effects from family to employment categories and overall admissions context). Cato Institute
Lexology summary citing government figures: “USCIS processing of employment-based Green Card applications in FY 2022” (notes FY2021 EB limit and 66,781 unused numbers). Lexology
Constangy, Brooks, Smith & Prophete, “Use it, don’t lose it: USCIS tries to prevent loss of employment-based visas” (explains one-way rollover rule and expiration of unused EB numbers). Constangy
(Where possible, prioritize the State Department’s annual “Visa Office” tables and USCIS FAQs for the most authoritative figures; secondary summaries above reference those primary datasets.)
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