High Unemployment TEA Retrogression Looming with I-526E Petitions in Pipeline
Rural Set Asides: Visa Supply Greater than Apr 2022 – Oct 2023 Demand
In October 2023, Houston EB5 was among the first in the EB-5 industry to present a detailed Visa Availability Analysis of the Reserved Visa Set Asides mandated by the “EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act” (RIA). We based the analysis on I-526 Standalone and I-526E Regional Center Immigrant Investor Petitions filed since the implementation of the RIA.. Our forecast was well received by EB-5 investors, immigration attorneys and industry observers as we awakened the market to the reality that the High Unemployment TEA category (HUA)[1] I-526E filings far exceeded the yearly FY2024 visa allocation, unlike the Rural demand that left some 3,300 Rural Visas available.
This created a HUA “invisible backlog” that will remain unreported by the Visa Bulletin for some time but should cause a delay in waiting for visa availability, known as “retrogression,” for High Unemployment TEA EB-5 investors from high demand countries like China and India.
Since the publication of our article, the American Immigrant Investor Association (AIIA) has shared a detailed breakdown of the 3,444 I-526E Petitions[2] filed between April 2022 and October 2023[3] that they obtained from USCIS after a “Freedom of Information Act” (FOIA) request.
The report confirmed our insights that it is unlikely the Rural EB-5 investors from any country that filed by October 2023 will experience retrogression and that the High Unemployment category is already severely oversubscribed with Petitions pending at the USCIS..
Although the HUA visa backlogs for China and India are unlikely to appear on the Visa Bulletin in FY2024, they appear by early to mid FY2025 as High Unemployment EB5 Petitions reach the visa stage.
After we review some key concepts,[4] we will revisit our predictions in the light of the latest USCIS/FOIA information and recent adjudication insights.
Reserved EB-5 Visa Supply: To channel foreign investment towards areas most in need of job creation, the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 (RIA) created three “Reserved Visa Categories,” also referred to as “Set-Asides.” These set-asides allocate 20% of all EB-5 Visas to Rural Areas, 10% to High Unemployment Areas, and 2% to Infrastructure Projects, as shown below. Additionally, the RIA stipulates that I-526E petitions for Rural Projects are given priority processing and are to be fast-tracked, with a processing goal of 4 months. Most importantly, Concurrent Filing is restricted to Reserved Visa investors who live in the US. While their Visa Category shows Current, they can apply for Adjustment of Status (Form I-485) and receive in about 3 or 4 months unrestricted work (Employment Authorization Document, Form I-765) and travel permits (Advance Parole, Form-I-130), both valid for 5 years, while their I-526E process is still pending.
| TABLE I | |||||
| EB-5 Visa Categories | |||||
| Visa Category | Priority Processing | Reserved Visa | Visa Set Asides | Investment | Project Location |
| Rural | ✓ | ✓ | 20% | $800K | Outside MSA or town > 20,000 habitants |
| High Unemployment | ✓ | 10% | $800K | Census tract(s) with >150% national unemployment rate | |
| Infrastructure | ✓ | 2% | $800K | Government project | |
| Unreserved | $1.05M | All other areas | |||
As explained in detail in our previous blog, 7.1% of all Employment-based visas are allocated to EB-5 program every Fiscal Year.[5] Historically, the employment-based categories are afforeded 140,000 new visas each year, and consequently EB-5 receives about 10,000 visas annually.[6] However, FY2024 EB-5 visas totaled twice as many (22,233) visas from the combined effect of receiving unused family category visas from Consulate closures during the COVID pandemic[7] and unused EB-5 visas from the EB-5 Program lapse in 2021 and slow implementation in 2022 and 2023.[8]
With a higher number of new available visas, and unused Reserved Visas carry overs,[9] the number of visas are 2,542 for HUA[10] and 5,085 for Rural[11] in FY2024.
Retrogression and the Visa Bulletin: EB-5 Visa retrogression happens when the number of applicants from a specific country exceeds the 7% visa cap available per country in a fiscal year, leading to a backlog and delays in visa issuance.
Please bear in mind that this 7% applies not only to the overall number of EB-5 visas, but within each specific category. For example, for FY2024, this translates into 178 HUA visas and 356 Rural Visas. To clarify, we are the number of visas which includes the investor, spouse, and unmarried children under 21.. Since the 7% HUA country cap for FY2024 is 178 visas, it would take only about 67 to 100 investors from any single country to fill it up. It’s worth considering that any single country could receive more visas only if there are some left available by other countries not reaching their visa cap.
Visa applicants receive a priority date marking their position in the visa queue. The U.S. State Department’s Visa Bulletin indicates which priority dates are currently being processed (shown as “C”).
If demand outstrips supply, these priority dates can move backward, delaying when applicants can receive their visas. This backward movement, known as visa retrogression, can happen abruptly and delay a family’s immigration process for several years. This happened with pre-RIA Chinese EB-5 investors in 2015, some of whom are still waiting for a visa number.[12] Also, thousands of Indians who are H1-B visa holders living in the US are experiencing decades of backlogs in the EB-2 and EB-3 categories, so they are looking into the EB-5 Reserved Visa categories as a quick and predictable path to US residency by investment.
As mentioned in an earlier blog post, the monthly Visa Bulletin does not adequately indicate impending retrogressions. This is because it relies on the number of visas issued,rather than considering the total number of investors who have filed their I-526E Petitions and are currently in the queue. In other words, anEB-5 visa category may show “Current” while it may be quite oversubscribed.
The visa category suddenly becoming retrogressed will no longer allow EB-5 investors living in the US, especially those from high demand countries like China and India, to take advantage of Concurrent Filing. Conversely, those applying from abroad will not be able to go for Consular Processing until their priority date becomes current and is earlier than the date stated on the Visa Bulletin
Considering that although the demand for high unemployment visas from the pipeline largely surpasses the available supply, retrogression will not occur until this demand reaches the visa stage through approval of the petitions. As long as the processing by USCIS and the National Visa Center (NVC) ramps up, I-526Es filed in 2023 are not expected to all transition into qualified visa applicants by the end of FY2024. Consequently, it’s likely that the visa bulletin will remain open in FY2024 and sometime into FY2025.
Retrogression poses significant challenges and uncertainties for applicants, impacting their immigration timelines, financial plans, and overall well-being. However, applicants can mitigate these risks by strategically choosing EB-5 categories with higher visa availability.
Therefore, at Houston EB5 we encourage EB-5 applicants to proceed with caution and consider the queue of I-526E Regional Center Immigrant Petitions already ahead of them rather than making their investment decisions based solely on the Visa Bulletin.
The USCIS/FOIA Report: Now that reviewed some fundamentals, let’s reassess our forecast in the context of I-526E Petitions filed through October 2023.
The table below shows the latest USCIS/FOIA data:
| TABLE II | ||||||
| I-526/I-526E filed from April 1, 2022, to October 2023 per FOIA data shared by AIIA | ||||||
| China | India | Taiwan | Rest of World | Total | Total % | |
| Rural | 767 | 174 | 18 | 134 | 1,093 | 32% |
| High Unemployment | 976 | 375 | 209 | 625 | 2,185 | 63% |
| Infrastructure | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Multiple TEA Categories | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 0.50% |
| Not TEA | 26 | 21 | 6 | 97 | 150 | 4% |
| Total | 1,777 | 573 | 233 | 861 | 3,444 | 100% |
| Total % | 52% | 17% | 7% | 25% | 100% | |
Overall Petitions: There were 3,444 I-526E filings by the end of October 2023, exceeding our forecast by 36%. [13]
HUA and Rural: With 2,185 HUA petitions (63%) to 1,093 for Rural (32%), the 2 to1 ratio in the FOIA report was in line with our forecast.[14] We need to point out that the demand composition is lopsided in relation to the RIA Reserved Visa allocation of 20% for Rural and 10% for HUA. This creates a 4:1 imbalance between the HUA I-526E inventory vs. visa availability.
Non-TEA Filings: The FOIA report shows there were 150 investors (4%) that invested in non-Targeted Employment Areas, in accordance with our 3% forecast.
Countries: The October report confirmed our prediction that about 70% of the investors would be from China and India as, according to FOIA 69% were born in those countries. However, instead of the even distribution between Chinese and Indians that we presumed, the China vs India ratio was 3:1 with 1,777 Chinese investors and 573 Indian investors.
Three Asian countries accounted for 76% of all Petitions. The market was led by China (52%), followed by India (17 %), and Taiwan (7 %). The remaining 24% was composed of 861 investors from all other countries, including Vietnam (4%) and South Korea (3%).
Analyzing the Backlog: The I-526E filing numbers are crucial as they reveal how many individuals are ahead in the pipeline . The timing of when this pipeline advances to the visa stage largely hinges on USCIS and Consulate processing times.
Analyzing the Backlog: The I-526E filing numbers are crucial as they reveal how many individuals are ahead in the pipeline . The timing of when this pipeline advances to the visa stage largely hinges on USCIS and Consulate processing times.
To minimize the loss of reserved visas, USCIS and NVC have stated that they will go through the carryover visas first, which otherwise will get rolled over to unreserved. They will then proceed with issuing the new visas that can be kept as carryovers within each category for the following fiscal year.
Also, upon I-526E approval, some Petitions are given dual categories that would allow adjudicating Reserved Visa petitions of investors from low demand countries as Unreserved Visas. In this way, they are able to issue more of the Reserved Visas to investors that otherwise would be facing retrogression.
Despite that we are seeing high efficiency at the USCIS by a steady flow of Rural I-526E approvals from faster priority processing (while rather few HUA petitions have been approves), there have been no USCIS or NVC official reports of Reserved Visas issued yet at the time of writing of this article in early May 2024. . We are therefore running the risk of seeing a considerable number of visas that will no longer be available for the reserved categories.
At the end of this post, we have analyzed the Supply and Demand interactions to determine the extent of the backlog in tables III throughVI, , . To simplify, we are only considering the Rural and HUA categories as a whole. This is because if the category is overbooked, China and India retrogressions are sure to occur.
The major factor from the supply side that will determine reserved visa wastage is adjudication speed of carryover visas. Thus, we considered the effect of varying adjudication rates, including in the most extreme case 0% (no carryover visas issued) to 100% (all issued).
Main factors on the demand side are family size and USCIS approval rates to determine how many visas will be needed. We considered three different numbers of visas per investor (2.2, 2.5, and 2.8), all well below the historical 3.3 members per family average. This gives our analysis latitude to include a very large number of single F-1 students and mixed family H1-B visa holders with some children born in the USA.
To model different approval rates, we considered the historical 80% I-526 approval rate and a much higher 95% rate. The range of the combinations is from 1.76 (2.2 visas @ 80%) to 2.66 visas per investor (2.8 visas @ 95%).
Rural Visas: In virtually all cases considered, the FY2024 visa supply amply served the I-526E FOIA demand up to October 2023.[15] Only in the unlikely scenario that there were no carryover rural visas issued and visas per investor were at least 2.8,could there be a small shortage.[16] Since the industry is already reporting several I-526Es approvals, the most likely scenario is that at least 25% will be issued, leaving a surplus of up to 1,060 visas. If all rural carryover visas were issued, the surplus could be up to 3,160. This would be enough for another 400 to 1,800 investors, considering different family sizes and approval rates.
Once we add the visas available in FY2025, surplus scenarios all are higher than 2,500 visas[17] or 940 investors. In other words, retrogression is unlikely for Rural I-526E filers included in the FOIA report.
HUA Visas: On the other hand, the FY2024 HUA Visa supply is grossly insufficient to meet the FOIA I-526E Petitions filed through to October 2023. Even considering 2.2 visas per investor (unlikely) and all carryover HUA being issued in FY2024 (most unlikely), the deficit is already 1,300 visas.
Given longer adjudication times for HUA visas, the most probable outcome is that very few FY2024 carryover visas will be issued. We therefore may be looking at a deficit anywhere from 2,700 to 4,700 visas. This represents an overall potential wait time of 2.7 to 4.7 years, not considering any filings post October 2023 that were not included in the FOIA report.
Even when adding the FY2025 new HUA visa supply, there is already a backlog extending into FY2026 or FY2027, and even longer for oversubscribed countries like China and India. Taiwan, Vietnam, and South Korea are countries that may hit HUA backlogs in late FY2025.
Extent of the Backlog: Given the growing demand worldwide for EB-5 Reserved Visas, retrogression could be severe. However, let’s bear in mind that it may not be as severe, given the dual adjudication procedure we have stated above.
Let us measure the extent of the backlog that the FOIA reserved petitions could represent. We first calculate the 7% visa cap based on the expected new visas for FY2025. Once again, we see that the available visas for Rural are twice as many as for HUA.
| TABLE A – COUNTRY CAP CALCULATION | ||
| FY2025 Base | Visas | 7% |
| Rural | 1,988 | 139 |
| HUA | 994 | 70 |
The next step is to convert I-526E Petitions filed to visas per investor. Consistent with our assumptions, we will work with our 2.2 to 2.8 members per family and 80% to 95% approval rates.
| TABLE B – VISAS PER I-526E | ||
| Approval Rate | Filed | Approved |
| 80% | 2.2 | 1.76 |
| 95% | 2.8 | 2.66 |
We then transform the number of Rural I-526E Petitions filed by investors of high-demand countries to estimated approved visas and compare them to the yearly country cap. This gives us the potential number of years that the FOIA I-526Es petitions represent. We see 9.7 to 14.7 years for China, but only 2.2 years to 3.3 year for India.
| TABLE C – RURAL PIPELINE IN FOIA OCT 2023 REPORT | |||||||
| RURAL | I-526E | Visas | Yearly | Years’ | Visas | Yearly Cap | Years’ |
| Filed | 1.76 | Cap | Wait | 2.66 | Cap | Wait | |
| China | 767 | 1,350 | 139 | 9.7 | 2,040 | 139 | 14.7 |
| India | 174 | 306 | 139 | 2.2 | 463 | 139 | 3.3 |
| Taiwan | 18 | 32 | 139 | 0.2 | 48 | 139 | 0.3 |
We do the same for the High Unemployment and as expected, we get considerably longer wait times. The China range is 24.7 to 37.3 years. The range for India is 9.5 to 14.3 years. 5.3 years to 8.0 years is the range for Taiwan.
| TABLE D – HUA PIPELINE IN FOIA OCT 2023 REPORT | |||||||
| HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT | I-526E | Visas | Yearly | Years’ | Visas | Yearly Cap | Years’ |
| Filed | 1.76 | Cap | Wait | 2.66 | Cap | Wait | |
| China | 976 | 1,718 | 70 | 24.7 | 2,596 | 70 | 37.3 |
| India | 375 | 660 | 70 | 9.5 | 998 | 70 | 14.3 |
| Taiwan | 209 | 368 | 70 | 5.3 | 556 | 70 | 8.0 |
Once again, with the relief that the dual adjudication process that allows EB-5 Reserved Visa investors from lower demand countries not to consume reserved visas that can be used for those investors facing backlogs, the wait may not be as long.
Key Takeaways: Below are some insights that we can glean after reviewing the data.
Concurrent Filing: As long as their country shows “Current” in the Visa Bulletin, those EB-5 investors who are in the U.S. seeking work and travel benefits quickly could file their Adjustment of Status and receive their Employment and Travel authorizations that are valid for 5 years. In this path, they can stay in the US, work, and travel freely even if their country of origin were to show “Unavailable” in the Visa Bulletin at a later date.
This means that HUA investors that are now filing petitions, could benefit from this, even though the evidence we have seen signifies that the category is oversubscribed.
Rural vs HUA: As shown above, when retrogression occurs, it will be much more severe in the HUA category. Also, the 20% Rural Set Aside quota will diminish the pipeline twice as fast.
Effects of Retrogression: As those investors who live abroad cannot pursue Concurrent Filing, they may see their Green Card issuance delayed several years.
As you may see there are many reasons for considering a high-quality rural project. Therefore, we encourage you to review our approved project, The Fredericksburg.
| TABLE III | ||||||
| EB-5 RURAL VISA ANALYSIS | ||||||
| FY2024 Supply vs. Ap’22 – Oct ’23 FOIA Demand | ||||||
| % of 2023 Carryover Allocated | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | |
| FY2024 Carry Over | 2,799 | 2,099 | 1,400 | 700 | 0 | |
| FY2024 New = FY 2025 Carryover | 2,286 | 2,286 | 2,286 | 2,286 | 2,286 | |
| FY2024 Effective Visa Availability | 5,085 | 4,385 | 3,686 | 2,986 | 2,286 | |
| I526E filed through October 2023 | 1,093 | 1,093 | 1,093 | 1,093 | 1,093 | |
| Visas per Petition | 2.2 | 2,405 | 2,405 | 2,405 | 2,405 | 2,405 |
| Approval Rate | 80% | 1,924 | 1,924 | 1,924 | 1,924 | 1,924 |
| Surplus or Deficit | 3,161 | 2,462 | 1,762 | 1,062 | 362 | |
| Visas per Petition | 2.5 | 2,733 | 2,733 | 2,733 | 2,733 | 2,733 |
| Approval Rate | 80% | 2,186 | 2,186 | 2,186 | 2,186 | 2,186 |
| Surplus or Deficit | 2,899 | 2,199 | 1,500 | 800 | 100 | |
| Visas per Petition | 2.8 | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 |
| Approval Rate | 80% | 2,448 | 2,448 | 2,448 | 2,448 | 2,448 |
| Surplus or Deficit | 2,637 | 1,937 | 1,237 | 537 | -162 | |
| Visas per Petition | 2.8 | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 |
| Approval Rate | 95% | 2,907 | 2,907 | 2,907 | 2,907 | 2,907 |
| Surplus or Deficit | 2,178 | 1,478 | 778 | 78 | -621 | |
| TABLE IV | ||||||
| EB-5 RURAL VISA ANALYSIS | ||||||
| FY2024 & FY2025 Supply vs. Ap’22 – Oct ’23 FOIA Demand | ||||||
| % of 2023 Carryover Allocated | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | |
| FY2024 Carry Over | 2,799 | 2,099 | 1,400 | 700 | 0 | |
| FY2024 New Base = FY2025 Carryover | 2,286 | 2,286 | 2,286 | 2,286 | 2,286 | |
| FY2025 New Base | 1,988 | 1,988 | 1,988 | 1,988 | 1,988 | |
| FY2024/FY2025 Effective Visa Availability | 7,073 | 6,373 | 5,674 | 4,974 | 4,274 | |
| I526E filed through October 2023 | 1,093 | 1,093 | 1,093 | 1,093 | 1,093 | |
| Visas per Petition | 2.2 | 2,405 | 2,405 | 2,405 | 2,405 | 2,405 |
| Approval Rate | 80% | 1,924 | 1,924 | 1,924 | 1,924 | 1,924 |
| Surplus or Deficit | 5,149 | 4,450 | 3,750 | 3,050 | 2,350 | |
| Visas per Petition | 2.5 | 2,733 | 2,733 | 2,733 | 2,733 | 2,733 |
| Approval Rate | 80% | 2,186 | 2,186 | 2,186 | 2,186 | 2,186 |
| Surplus or Deficit | 4,887 | 4,187 | 3,488 | 2,788 | 2,088 | |
| Visas per Petition | 2.8 | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 |
| Approval Rate | 80% | 2,448 | 2,448 | 2,448 | 2,448 | 2,448 |
| Surplus or Deficit | 4,625 | 3,925 | 3,225 | 2,525 | 1,826 | |
| Visas per Petition | 2.8 | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 |
| Approval Rate | 95% | 2,907 | 2,907 | 2,907 | 2,907 | 2,907 |
| Surplus or Deficit | 4,166 | 3,466 | 2,766 | 2,066 | 1,367 | |
| TABLE V | ||||||
| EB-5 HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT VISA ANALYSIS | ||||||
| FY2024 Supply vs. Ap’22 – Oct ’23 FOIA Demand | ||||||
| % of 2023 Carryover Allocated | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | |
| FY2024 Carry Over | 1,399 | 1,049 | 700 | 350 | 0 | |
| FY2024 New Base | 1,143 | 1,143 | 1,143 | 1,143 | 1,143 | |
| FY2024 Effective Visa Availability | 2,542 | 2,192 | 1,843 | 1,493 | 1,143 | |
| I526E filed through October 2023 | 2,185 | 2,185 | 2,185 | 2,185 | 2,185 | |
| Visas per Petition | 2.2 | 4,807 | 4,807 | 4,807 | 4,807 | 4,807 |
| Approval Rate | 80% | 3,846 | 3,846 | 3,846 | 3,846 | 3,846 |
| Surplus or Deficit | -1,304 | -1,653 | ##### | ##### | ##### | |
| Yearly Base | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | |
| Years’ Delay | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.7 | |
| Visas per Petition | 2.5 | 5,463 | 5,463 | 5,463 | 5,463 | 5,463 |
| Approval Rate | 95% | 5,189 | 5,189 | 5,189 | 5,189 | 5,189 |
| Surplus or Deficit | -2,647 | -2,997 | ##### | ##### | ##### | |
| Yearly Base | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | |
| Years’ Delay | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | |
| Visas per Petition | 2.8 | 6,118 | 6,118 | 6,118 | 6,118 | 6,118 |
| Approval Rate | 80% | 4,894 | 4,894 | 4,894 | 4,894 | 4,894 |
| Surplus or Deficit | -2,352 | -2,702 | ##### | ##### | ##### | |
| Yearly Base | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | |
| Years’ Delay | 2.4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.8 | |
| Visas per Petition | 2.8 | 6,118 | 6,118 | 6,118 | 6,118 | 6,118 |
| Approval Rate | 95% | 5,812 | 5,812 | 5,812 | 5,812 | 5,812 |
| Surplus or Deficit | -3,270 | -3,620 | ##### | ##### | ##### | |
| Yearly Base | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | |
| Years’ Delay | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.7 | |
| TABLE VI | ||||||
| EB-5 HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT VISA ANALYSIS | ||||||
| FY2024 & FY2025 Supply vs. Ap’22 – Oct ’23 FOIA Demand | ||||||
| % of 2023 Carryover Allocated | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | |
| FY2024 Carry Over | 1,399 | 1,049 | 700 | 350 | 0 | |
| FY2024 New Base = FY2025 Carryover | 1,143 | 1,143 | 1,143 | 1,143 | 1,143 | |
| FY2025 New Base | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | |
| FY2024/FY2025 Effective Visa Availability | 3,536 | 3,186 | 2,837 | 2,487 | 2,137 | |
| I526E filed through October 2023 | 2,185 | 2,185 | 2,185 | 2,185 | 2,185 | |
| Visas per Petition | 2.2 | 4,807 | 4,807 | 4,807 | 4,807 | 4,807 |
| Approval Rate | 80% | 3,846 | 3,846 | 3,846 | 3,846 | 3,846 |
| Surplus or Deficit | -310 | -659 | ##### | ##### | ##### | |
| Yearly Base | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | |
| Years’ Delay | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | |
| Visas per Petition | 2.5 | 5,463 | 5,463 | 5,463 | 5,463 | 5,463 |
| Approval Rate | 80% | 4,370 | 4,370 | 4,370 | 4,370 | 4,370 |
| Surplus or Deficit | -834 | -1,184 | ##### | ##### | ##### | |
| Yearly Base | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | |
| Years’ Delay | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | |
| Visas per Petition | 2.8 | 6,118 | 6,118 | 6,118 | 6,118 | 6,118 |
| Approval Rate | 80% | 4,894 | 4,894 | 4,894 | 4,894 | 4,894 |
| Surplus or Deficit | -1,358 | -1,708 | ##### | ##### | ##### | |
| Yearly Base | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | |
| Years’ Delay | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.8 | |
| Visas per Petition | 2.8 | 6,118 | 6,118 | 6,118 | 6,118 | 6,118 |
| Approval Rate | 95% | 5,812 | 5,812 | 5,812 | 5,812 | 5,812 |
| Surplus or Deficit | -2,276 | -2,626 | ##### | ##### | ##### | |
| Yearly Base | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | 994 | |
| Years’ Delay | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | |
[1] These high unemployment and rural areas are frequently referred as “Targeted Employment Areas (TEAs)”. This is because the pre-RIA definition of Targeted Employment Area (TEA) definition encompassed High Unemployment Areas (census tracks with 150% unemployment vs national average) and Rural Areas (outside an MSA or town with population greater than 20,000 habitants).
[2] The data also includes 150 I-526/I-526E non-TEA petitions.
[3] First data from April 2022 to April 2023, and new data through November 2023. The new data better reflects I-526E Petitions filed through October 2023, as the FOIA report had very few November 2023 Petitions.
[4] For a more detailed explanation, please see our earlier blog post.
[5] The US Fiscal Year runs from October 1st of the preceding calendar year through September 30th. In other words, FY 2024 started on October 1, 2023.
[6] Actually 9,940 as it is 140,000 x 7.1%.
[7] This raised the number of Employment-Based visas to 161,000, and the number of EB-5 visas to 11,431.
[8] This made it possible for 4,478 Reserved Visas to carry over to the same Reserved categories and 6,396 Carried over to Unreserved Visas.
[9] If unused, then they get rolled over to the “Unreserved Category”, and no longer become available to the Reserved Categories they came from.
[10] HUA: 1,143 new + 1,399 carried over = 2,542 available.
[11] Rural: 2,286 new + 2,799 carried over = 5,085 available.
[12] The May 2024 Visa Bulletin is showingpriority dates for China (Dec 2015) and India (Dec 2020) for the Unreserved Visa category.
[13] Also, our analysis only considered up to September 2023.
[14] Our HUA/Rural ratio prediction was 2.2 to 1.
[15] We forecasted a surplus of 3,300 rural visas.
[16] Estimated 162 visas if 80% approval rate, and 621 with 95% approval.
[17] At least 25% FY2024 carryover issued, and 80% approval rate, at 2.8 per investor.
